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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Sherfield (24-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -1.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model