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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 1. 18-S.Sims to BAL 5 for 4 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model