Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.390 vs Russell Wilson (PIT) -0.004 EPA/dropback
- BAL offense: +0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- PIT offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 19
PIT
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:50 TD BAL (4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 04:13 TD BAL (4:13) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BAL 13
- Q2 00:11 TD BAL (:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 43-J.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-97-Ca.Heyward was injured during the play. PIT 0 – BAL 20
- Q3 08:10 TD PIT (8:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 11-V.Jefferson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 21
- Q3 05:57 TD BAL (5:57) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – BAL 27
- Q3 03:32 TD PIT (3:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – BAL 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:08) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 1. 18-S.Sims to BAL 5 for 4 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 58%
(2:44) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre. PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 15.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%
(14:15) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 70%
(12:16) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-S.Sims.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 24%
(11:37) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to PIT 2, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:34) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. Penalty on PIT-23-D.Kazee, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(15:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-S.Sims.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:50) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 14 yards (27-T.Tampa).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 44%
(6:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 19-C.Austin.