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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to PIT 2, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.88 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP