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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 14 yards (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model