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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre. PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP