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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 7 at the 46
Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(14:15) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
+0.10 EP
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
KICK
-0.95 EP
- 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
+0.04 EP
What Happened
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
