4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP