4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 33

Washington Commanders 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 47-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model