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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-01-12 · 20:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

WAS
28.2%
TB
71.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.222 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
TB 28
Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

WAS

Colson Yankoff TE Out Hamstring
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hamstring

TB

Troy Hill CB Out Knee
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Knee
Mike Edwards S Questionable Quadricep
Cade Otton TE Questionable Knee
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Knee
Logan Hall DE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 23
–
TB 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:40 FG TB (11:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. Penalty on WAS-39-J.Reaves, Defensive Offside, declined. WAS 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 09:31 TD WAS (9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 2-D.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 01:57 FG WAS (1:57) 47-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 10 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:13 TD TB (:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – TB 9
  • Q3 10:33 FG WAS (10:33) 47-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 13 – TB 10
  • Q3 04:34 TD TB (4:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – TB 16
  • Q4 09:50 TD WAS (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – TB 17
  • Q4 04:45 FG TB (4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. WAS 20 – TB 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG WAS (:03) 47-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 23 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 77%

    (11:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. Penalty on WAS-39-J.Reaves, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 92%

    (7:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 30-A.Ekeler.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 37%

    (3:41) 5-J.Browning punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (12:44) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to TB 21 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:34) 5-J.Browning punts 56 yards to WAS 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 30 for 17 yards (81-R.Miller).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%

    (1:57) 47-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (10:33) 47-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 67%

    (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to TB 23 for 14 yards (21-M.Edwards).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (14:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.