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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 4

Washington Commanders 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 47-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP