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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. Penalty on WAS-39-J.Reaves, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.64 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model