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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 37

Washington Commanders 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to TB 23 for 14 yards (21-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model