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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model