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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP