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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 5-J.Browning punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model