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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 23

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to TB 21 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model