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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 37

Houston Texans 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP