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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Saturday 2025-01-18 · 16:30 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌨 Snow Spread 9.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU
30.3%
KC
69.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.140 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.090 EPA/dropback (KC starting Patrick Mahomes in place of Carson Wentz)
  • HOU offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • KC on 6 more days rest than HOU
  • HOU defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
KC 23
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

HOU

Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle
Robert Woods WR Questionable Hip
Teagan Quitoriano TE Questionable Calf
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Questionable Knee

KC

Mecole Hardman WR Doubtful Knee
Jaylen Watson CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 14
–
KC 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:01 FG KC (14:01) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. HOU 0 – KC 3
  • Q1 08:44 FG HOU (8:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – KC 3
  • Q1 04:03 FG KC (4:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. HOU 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 04:39 TD KC (4:39) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – KC 12
  • Q2 00:20 FG HOU (:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 6 – KC 13
  • Q3 04:42 TD HOU (4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – KC 13
  • Q4 11:57 TD KC (11:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Edwards]. HOU 12 – KC 19
  • Q4 04:41 FG KC (4:41) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. HOU 12 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:15 SAF HOU (:15) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end ran ob in End Zone for -18 yards, SAFETY (13-D.Phillips). HOU 14 – KC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (14:01) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (8:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (4:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 20 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 20 for 11 yards (37-D.Ross).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (11:32) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 56%

    (7:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 56%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 76-K.Suamataia reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to HOU 34 for 3 yards (97-M.Edwards).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 48%

    (10:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 44 for -16 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (8:39) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (4:41) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (1:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend, RECOVERED by KC-21-J.Hicks at KC 13. 21-J.Hicks pushed ob at KC 23 for 10 yards (6-T.Townsend).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end ran ob in End Zone for -18 yards, SAFETY (13-D.Phillips).