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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.28 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model