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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 29

Houston Texans 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model