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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 76-K.Suamataia reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to HOU 34 for 3 yards (97-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model