4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP