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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 89

Houston Texans 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model