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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.30 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP