Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 82

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Houston Texans 12

(:15) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end ran ob in End Zone for -18 yards, SAFETY (13-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.14 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -2.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.17 EP