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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 12

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP