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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model