Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 58

Houston Texans 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 20 for 11 yards (37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model