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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 10-B.Mann punts 32 yards to LA 7, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-84-E.Jenkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model