LA @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni

Sunday 2025-01-19 · 15:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

33.8%

PHI

66.2%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PHI offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
LA offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
PHI defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
LA defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
QB edge to LA: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.113 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.136 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 22

–

PHI 27

Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

LA

Larrell Murchison DE Out Foot

Troy Reeder LB Out Hamstring

Bobby Brown DT Questionable Shoulder

Justin Dedich G Questionable Illness

Alaric Jackson T Questionable Chest

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Thigh

PHI

Byron Young DT Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 22

–

PHI 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:04 TD PHI (12:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – PHI 6
Q1 06:36 TD LA (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – PHI 6
Q1 01:17 TD PHI (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – PHI 12
Q2 12:51 FG LA (12:51) 16-J.Karty 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 10 – PHI 13
Q3 07:41 FG LA (7:41) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 13 – PHI 13
Q3 02:24 FG PHI (2:24) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. LA 13 – PHI 16
Q3 00:32 SAF LA (:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (92-N.Gallimore). LA 15 – PHI 16
Q4 13:26 FG PHI (13:26) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. LA 15 – PHI 19
Q4 06:22 FG PHI (6:22) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. LA 15 – PHI 22
Q4 04:47 TD PHI (4:47) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – PHI 28
Q4 02:51 TD LA (2:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 86-C.Parkinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – PHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 10

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

(8:05) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 6 for 4 yards (3-N.Smith; 8-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(5:04) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 16, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 18 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(2:47) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 17, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-C.DeJean ran ob at PHI 17 for no gain.
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

(12:51) 16-J.Karty 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%

(8:24) 10-B.Mann punts 32 yards to LA 7, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-84-E.Jenkins.
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 54%

(5:26) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9.
Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP

p(convert) 55%

(13:29) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 15 for 5 yards (88-J.Whittington).
Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 60%

(12:09) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to LA 23, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 26 for 3 yards (21-S.Brown).
Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

(7:41) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%

(2:24) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP

p(convert) 62%

(1:26) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to PHI 4, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.
Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(13:26) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 74%

(8:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to LA 23 for 9 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

(6:22) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(4:54) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 73 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:35) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.
Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 22 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

(:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua [98-J.Carter].