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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP