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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 15 for 5 yards (88-J.Whittington).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP