4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to LA 23, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 26 for 3 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.27 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP