4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model