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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model