Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Los Angeles Rams 22

(2:35) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.51 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model