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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 6 for 4 yards (3-N.Smith; 8-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model