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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 16, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 18 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model