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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 9

Washington Commanders 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DET 2 for 7 yards (6-I.Melifonwu; 46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model