4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Saturday 2025-01-18 · 20:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

WAS
25.0%
DET
75.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.249 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.351 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
DET 30
Projected margin: DET by 9 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

WAS

Jordan Magee LB Out Hamstring
Mykal Walker LB Questionable Illness
Colson Yankoff TE Questionable Hamstring

DET

Pat O'Connor DE Out Calf
Kevin Zeitler G Out Hamstring
Ennis Rakestraw CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 45
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:40 TD DET (7:40) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 03:54 FG WAS (3:54) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – DET 7
  • Q2 10:58 TD WAS (10:58) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. WAS 9 – DET 7
  • Q2 07:50 TD DET (7:50) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Allen]. WAS 10 – DET 13
  • Q2 06:33 TD WAS (6:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – DET 14
  • Q2 05:38 TD WAS (5:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at DET 40. 20-Q.Martin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-16-J.Goff was injured during the play. WAS 23 – DET 14
  • Q2 04:16 TD DET (4:16) 9-Ja.Williams left end for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – DET 20
  • Q2 01:49 TD WAS (1:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 30 – DET 21
  • Q3 07:02 TD DET (7:02) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 31 – DET 27
  • Q4 13:32 TD WAS (13:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 37 – DET 28
  • Q4 07:38 TD WAS (7:38) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 44 – DET 28
  • Q4 05:04 FG DET (5:04) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. WAS 45 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:53) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 84%

    (10:42) (No Huddle) Direct snap to 18-M.Mariota. 18-M.Mariota up the middle to DET 29 for -1 yards (69-A.Muhammad).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (3:54) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%

    (13:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DET 2 for 7 yards (6-I.Melifonwu; 46-J.Campbell).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:03) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to DET 9, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-41-C.Yankoff.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 95%

    (1:47) 60-M.Deiter reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels right end ran ob at DET 13 for 3 yards (0-T.Arnold).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (8:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to DET 1 for 12 yards (46-J.Campbell).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (5:04) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%

    (2:31) 47-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff scrambles left end ran ob at 50 for 7 yards (4-F.Luvu).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 82%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to WAS 17 for 13 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene).