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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 63

Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model