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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 16

Washington Commanders 31 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 60-M.Deiter reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels right end ran ob at DET 13 for 3 yards (0-T.Arnold).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model