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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (No Huddle) Direct snap to 18-M.Mariota. 18-M.Mariota up the middle to DET 29 for -1 yards (69-A.Muhammad).

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model