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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 57

Detroit Lions 31 – Washington Commanders 45

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff scrambles left end ran ob at 50 for 7 yards (4-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -0.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model