Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(11:35) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to KC 7, Center-49-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 12 for 5 yards (28-W.Shipley; 49-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.22 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model