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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-02-09 · 18:30 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

KC
43.5%
PHI
56.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • PHI offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.163 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.185 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 22

KC

Skyy Moore WR Doubtful Abdomen

PHI

Britain Covey WR Out Neck
Brandon Graham DE Questionable Elbow
C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Abdomen
Nick Gates C Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 22 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 22
–
PHI 40

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:18 TD PHI (6:18) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 08:42 FG PHI (8:42) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. KC 0 – PHI 10
  • Q2 07:16 TD PHI (7:16) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 8-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean at KC 38. 33-C.DeJean for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PHI 16
  • Q2 01:40 TD PHI (1:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PHI 23
  • Q3 05:22 FG PHI (5:22) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. KC 0 – PHI 27
  • Q3 02:47 TD PHI (2:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PHI 33
  • Q3 00:43 TD KC (:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 1-X.Worthy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – PHI 34
  • Q4 09:56 FG PHI (9:56) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. KC 6 – PHI 37
  • Q4 08:05 FG PHI (8:05) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. KC 6 – PHI 40
  • Q4 02:58 TD KC (2:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – PHI 40
  • Q4 01:56 TD KC (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 1-X.Worthy for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – PHI 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:35) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to KC 7, Center-49-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 12 for 5 yards (28-W.Shipley; 49-R.Lovato).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:52) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to PHI 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:44) 14-M.Araiza punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to PHI 37, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 43 for 6 yards (2-J.Williams).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (8:42) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:57) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to PHI 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 39%

    (1:56) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to KC 6, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to PHI 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 37 for 8 yards (50-S.Bozeman).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:09) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (5:22) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 29%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 8-D.Hopkins (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (9:56) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 78%

    (8:05) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 36%

    (1:59) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Dotson.