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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model