4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 37 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model