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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 19-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model